Haugesund 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 40%, yet in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haugesund at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Haugesund, 1 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–4 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 60% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 62% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.57 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.134 / defence 1.140 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.191 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.030. Data: 33 Haugesund games / 33 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 40% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 40% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Haugesund 1.57 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.134 / def 1.140 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.191 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Haugesund 0 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 40% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (4 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (1.13) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.68
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.97
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
7%
14.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.40 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 16D 25L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 23W 11D 26L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.22 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 3D 16L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.60 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Haugesund's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.63 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
3
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 63%, Sarpsborg 08 FF at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Haugesund and 70% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Haugesund's games and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Haugesund's matches and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.57 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.19 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 40% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 62%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.22 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.