ODD Ballklubb 0-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Rosenborg travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Skagerak Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ODD Ballklubb 2.10 PPG, Rosenborg 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rosenborg, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for ODD Ballklubb.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 2–3 with Rosenborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rosenborg have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 62% and Rosenborg 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 62% | Rosenborg 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.71 xG and Rosenborg 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.046 / defence 0.877 | Rosenborg attack 1.075 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.086. Data: 33 ODD Ballklubb games / 33 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 52% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 21%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 4.76. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Rosenborg 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 52% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.71 / Rosenborg 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.046 / def 0.877 | Rosenborg attack 1.075 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Rosenborg xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 52% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Record (6 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 4W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.05x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.73
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.73
1.02
Rosenborg xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
4%
26.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.02 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 21W 15D 24L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Rosenborg's form line: 29W 17D 14L from 60 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ODD Ballklubb.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 9W 11D 10L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 2.12 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 29W 17D 14L in their last 60 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Rosenborg away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.47 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
7
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Rosenborg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 73%, Rosenborg at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 73% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 80% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 73% of Rosenborg's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 4, as ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.71 xG and Rosenborg 1.02 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Rosenborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 52% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 21%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 62%, Rosenborg 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.