Brann 3-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 3 as Brann welcome Valerenga to Brann Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Brann haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valerenga — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Brann) versus 1.10 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Valerenga have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Brann.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Valerenga winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Valerenga have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 71% and Valerenga 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 61% | Valerenga 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.45 xG and Valerenga 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.050 / defence 0.990 | Valerenga attack 1.027 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.033. Data: 2 Brann games / 32 Valerenga games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Brann 46% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 27%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Valerenga 3.70. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Brann 80% | Valerenga 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 46% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Brann 1.45 / Valerenga 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.050 / def 0.990 | Valerenga attack 1.027 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Brann (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Valerenga xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Valerenga kick off?
Brann vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Valerenga?
Brann 3 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Brann vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Valerenga part of?
Brann vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 46% chance of winning, Valerenga a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Brann and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Valerenga?
Record (4 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | Valerenga 4W.
What form are Brann and Valerenga in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.05x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.80
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Brann xG
Total xG
2.50
1.05
Valerenga xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
15.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Brann and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Brann and 1.05 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Brann have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 5W 12D 14L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. Brann haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Valerenga's form line: 13W 5D 13L from 31 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 4W 3D 9L from 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Brann are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.71 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 5W 12D 14L in their last 31 games (0.87 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 13W 5D 13L in their last 31 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Valerenga away?
Brann's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.12 PPG; Valerenga away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2020, when Valerenga won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Brann
0
Draws
5
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Valerenga?
From 9 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Valerenga have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Brann 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brann see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 75%, Valerenga at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Brann and 62% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Brann's games and 69% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Brann's matches and 62% of Valerenga's.
Do Brann and Valerenga tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Valerenga 3-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.45 xG and Valerenga 1.05 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Valerenga attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Brann 46% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 27%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 61%, Valerenga 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Brann winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Valerenga (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.