Bodo/Glimt 2-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Bodo/Glimt welcome ODD Ballklubb to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bodo/Glimt at 1.90 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bodo/Glimt register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bodo/Glimt, 2 for ODD Ballklubb and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 7–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 58% and ODD Ballklubb 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 62% | ODD Ballklubb 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.52 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.281 / defence 1.040 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.785 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.128. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. ODD Ballklubb's defence strength of 0.702 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Bodo/Glimt games / 34 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 49% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 21%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | ODD Ballklubb 4.76. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.2 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 44% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bodo/Glimt 60% | ODD Ballklubb 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 49% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.52 / ODD Ballklubb 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.281 / def 1.040 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.785 / def 0.702 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.92
ODD Ballklubb xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 49% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (6 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 3W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.33
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.44
0.92
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
22.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.92 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 60 games, going 36W 15D 9L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (21W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 18W 10D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.13 points per game from 30 outings (8W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.45 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb in 62%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 15D 9L in their last 60 games (2.05 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.13 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Bodo/Glimt) and 50% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat ODD Ballklubb 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.52 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.92 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.28 / defence 1.04 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.79 / defence 0.70, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 49% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 21%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 62%, ODD Ballklubb 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.