Aalesund 1-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aalesund at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Color Line Stadion plays host to Aalesund versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Aalesund (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Color Line Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Aalesund are significantly better at Color Line Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Aalesund against 0.10 for Stabaek. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Stabaek hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Stabaek winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Stabaek have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 50% versus Stabaek 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 70% | Stabaek 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.43 xG and Stabaek 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.672 / defence 1.092 | Stabaek attack 0.719 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.285. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Aalesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Aalesund games / 20 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 47% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 27%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Stabaek 3.70. Aalesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aalesund at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aalesund if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Aalesund 40% | Stabaek 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 47% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Aalesund 1.43 / Stabaek 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.672 / def 1.092 | Stabaek attack 0.719 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stabaek xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Stabaek kick off?
Aalesund vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Aalesund 1 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Aalesund vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Stabaek part of?
Aalesund vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 47% chance of winning, Stabaek a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Aalesund and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 0 | Stabaek 3W.
What form are Aalesund and Stabaek in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Stabaek (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.67) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.72x) against Aalesund's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 52/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.75
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.44
1.01
Stabaek xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.01 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund come into this having played 20 games, going 3W 2D 15L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.55 PPG for Aalesund against 0.80 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Aalesund's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.55 PPG overall — Aalesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stabaek's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aalesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.45 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 0.90 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 3W 2D 15L in their last 20 games (0.55 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Stabaek away?
Aalesund's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.10 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stabaek won 4-0 on 18 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Aalesund
1
Draws
3
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Stabaek have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Aalesund 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 40%, Stabaek 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Aalesund and 80% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund have failed to score in 40% of games; Stabaek in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Aalesund's recent matches and 60% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Aalesund's matches and 80% of Stabaek's.
Do Aalesund and Stabaek tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aalesund and Stabaek share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund and Stabaek finished level at 1-1 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.43 xG and Stabaek 1.01 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against Stabaek attack 0.72 / defence 1.22, drawn from 52/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 47% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 27%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 70%, Stabaek 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 0.55 PPG, Stabaek 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.