Lillestrom 3-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Åråsen Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Rosenborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Lillestrom have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Rosenborg managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Lillestrom winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lillestrom and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 63% and Rosenborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 63% | Rosenborg 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 2.23 xG and Rosenborg 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.169 / defence 1.150 | Rosenborg attack 0.884 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.285. Data: 51 Lillestrom games / 52 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 58% | Draw 20% | Rosenborg 22%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Rosenborg 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 90% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 58% | Draw 20% | Rosenborg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Lillestrom 2.23 / Rosenborg 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.169 / def 1.150 | Rosenborg attack 0.884 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Rosenborg xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kick off?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Lillestrom 3 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg part of?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 58% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lillestrom and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Record (5 meetings): Lillestrom 4W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.88x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
58%
1.72
20%
5.00
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.53
1.31
Rosenborg xG
1.72
58%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
11%
9.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
2%
42.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.31 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 26W 8D 17L from 51 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 15L across 51 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.65 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 14W 2D 8L from 24 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.88 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 26W 8D 17L in their last 51 games (1.69 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 24W 12D 15L in their last 51 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Rosenborg away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.83 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, Rosenborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Lillestrom, 71% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Lillestrom and 67% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lillestrom's games and 71% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lillestrom's matches and 67% of Rosenborg's.
Do Lillestrom and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Rosenborg 3-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 2.23 xG and Rosenborg 1.31 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.17 / defence 1.15 against Rosenborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 58% | Draw 20% | Rosenborg 22%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 63%, Rosenborg 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.69 PPG, Rosenborg 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.