Bodo/Glimt 4-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 23 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Valerenga to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Bodo/Glimt) versus 1.10 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bodo/Glimt register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Valerenga in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bodo/Glimt have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Valerenga have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 3–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 67% and Valerenga 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Valerenga 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.56 xG and Valerenga 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.212 / defence 0.997 | Valerenga attack 0.960 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.285. Valerenga's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Bodo/Glimt games / 51 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 45% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 30%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Valerenga 3.33. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 45% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.56 / Valerenga 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.212 / def 0.997 | Valerenga attack 0.960 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Valerenga xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 45% chance of winning, Valerenga a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Record (7 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 5W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Valerenga (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.01
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.79
1.23
Valerenga xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.23 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 32W 10D 9L from 51 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 22L across 51 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 14W 8D 2L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.73 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.57 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 32W 10D 9L in their last 51 games (2.08 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 18W 11D 22L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Valerenga away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.08 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Valerenga have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bodo/Glimt at 67%, Valerenga at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bodo/Glimt and 58% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 71% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 58% of Valerenga's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Valerenga 4-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.56 xG and Valerenga 1.23 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.21 / defence 1.00 against Valerenga attack 0.96 / defence 0.74, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 45% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 30%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 72%, Valerenga 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.92 average — above their attacking norm. Valerenga (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.