Stabaek 0-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Nadderud Stadion to face Stabaek in Eliteserien (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Stabaek have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Stabaek are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Tromso's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Tromso's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Tromso are 1.70 PPG clear of Stabaek over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Stabaek, 2 for Tromso and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Jun 2023, ended Stabaek 1–2 Tromso — a Tromso win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 48% versus Tromso 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 52% | Tromso 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stabaek surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Tromso have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 0.93 xG and Tromso 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.583 / defence 0.950 | Tromso attack 0.957 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.285. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.583 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Stabaek's last 21 games and Tromso's last 52.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 28% | Draw 32% | Tromso 40%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.57 | Draw 3.15 | Tromso 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Tromso's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 30% (last 10 home games) | Tromso 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 18 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 28% | Draw 32% | Tromso 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Stabaek 0.93 / Tromso 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.583 / def 0.950 | Tromso attack 0.957 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Tromso (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Tromso xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Tromso FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Tromso kick off?
Stabaek vs Tromso kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Tromso?
Stabaek 0 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Stabaek vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Tromso part of?
Stabaek vs Tromso is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 18) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 28% chance of winning, Tromso a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stabaek and Tromso will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Stabaek vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.58x the league average against Tromso's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.96x) against Stabaek's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 21 games and Tromso's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
28%
3.57
32%
3.15
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.10
1.17
Tromso xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.4 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Tromso Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.17 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 5D 12L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (13W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Tromso carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stabaek's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.90 points per game from their last 10 away games (6W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.52 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso in 62%.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Tromso
Blended
Stabaek (Home) vs Tromso (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Stabaek vs Tromso Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Tromso in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 5D 12L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Tromso have gone 13W 3D 5L in their last 21 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.20 PPG; Tromso away: 1.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Stabaek and Tromso, the earliest from June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 30 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Tromso have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won Stabaek 0-3 Tromso on 14 Jun 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stabaek
1
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Tromso H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Tromso?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 0, Tromso have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Tromso last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 September 2023: Stabaek 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 30%, Tromso 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Stabaek) and 60% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Tromso in 40%; Stabaek have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Tromso Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Tromso matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Stabaek's recent matches and 50% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stabaek and Tromso matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Stabaek's recent games and 60% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Tromso matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Stabaek's recent matches and 70% of Tromso's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Stabaek 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Stabaek 0-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 0.93 xG and Tromso 1.17 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.58 / defence 0.95 against Tromso attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 21/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 28% | Draw 32% | Tromso 40%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 52%, Tromso 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tromso's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.