Viking 4-3 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 23 as Viking welcome Sandefjord to SR-Bank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Viking carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Viking have won 2, Sandefjord 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sandefjord trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 71% and Sandefjord 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 61% | Sandefjord 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.71 xG and Sandefjord 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.185 / defence 0.993 | Sandefjord attack 0.958 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.285. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Viking games / 51 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 69% | Draw 16% | Sandefjord 15%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.45 | Draw 6.25 | Sandefjord 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Viking (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.71 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 80% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 69% | Draw 16% | Sandefjord 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 66% | xG Viking 2.71 / Sandefjord 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.185 / def 0.993 | Sandefjord attack 0.958 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Viking (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sandefjord xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Sandefjord kick off?
Viking vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Sandefjord?
Viking 4 - 3 Sandefjord.
Where is Viking vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sandefjord part of?
Viking vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 69% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Viking and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sandefjord?
Record (4 meetings): Viking 2W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Viking and Sandefjord in?
Viking (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.19) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
69%
1.45
16%
6.15
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Viking xG
Total xG
3.94
1.22
Sandefjord xG
1.45
69%
Home win
6.15
16%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
7%
15.09
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
1%
101.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Viking and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Viking and 1.22 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 11D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 0.88 PPG from 51 outings (11W 12D 28L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Viking's home form reads 13W 7D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.65 points per game from 26 outings (5W 2D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.45 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 24W 11D 16L in their last 51 games (1.63 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 11W 12D 28L in their last 51 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sandefjord away?
Viking's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.77 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Viking
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Viking 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sandefjord?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 65%, Sandefjord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Viking and 73% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Viking's games and 50% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Viking's matches and 73% of Sandefjord's.
Do Viking and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Sandefjord 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sandefjord 4-3 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.71 xG and Sandefjord 1.22 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.19 / defence 0.99 against Sandefjord attack 0.96 / defence 1.32, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 69% | Draw 16% | Sandefjord 15%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 61%, Sandefjord 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Viking (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.