🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PSV Eindhoven face FC Volendam.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

PSV Eindhoven host FC Volendam at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 11:15 UTC.

Form Guide

PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Philips Stadion, PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, FC Volendam have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, PSV Eindhoven have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PSV Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of PSV Eindhoven: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for FC Volendam, with 0 draws across those contests.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 5–1 with PSV Eindhoven winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PSV Eindhoven and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 5.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.

FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 68% and FC Volendam 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 83% | FC Volendam 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 3.01 xG and FC Volendam 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.411 / defence 1.094 | FC Volendam attack 0.713 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.454. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 3.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 PSV Eindhoven games / 13 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 14% | FC Volendam 11%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.33 | Draw 7.14 | FC Volendam 9.09. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (3.01 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 70% | FC Volendam 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights