Telstar 1-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BUKO Stadion plays host to Telstar versus Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Telstar have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar at BUKO Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Feyenoord (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Feyenoord are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Telstar half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 49% versus Feyenoord 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 62% | Feyenoord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.15 xG and Feyenoord 2.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.868 / defence 1.393 | Feyenoord attack 1.475 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.439. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.475 — the away xG of 2.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Telstar games / 47 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 12% | Draw 14% | Feyenoord 74%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 8.33 | Draw 7.14 | Feyenoord 1.35. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (74%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.10 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 80% | Feyenoord 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 12% | Draw 14% | Feyenoord 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 65% | xG Telstar 1.15 / Feyenoord 2.96 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.868 / def 1.393 | Feyenoord attack 1.475 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
2.96
Feyenoord xG
65%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Feyenoord kick off?
Telstar vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Feyenoord?
Telstar 1 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Telstar vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Feyenoord part of?
Telstar vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 12% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 74% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Telstar and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Feyenoord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Telstar and Feyenoord in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.87) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.48x) against Telstar's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.96.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
12%
8.55
14%
7.03
74%
1.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
0 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Telstar xG
Total xG
4.10
2.96
Feyenoord xG
8.55
12%
Home win
7.03
14%
Draw
1.35
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
5%
19.22
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
1%
164.28
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.6 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Telstar and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Telstar and 2.96 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 4.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Telstar come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 11D 16L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.04 PPG from 47 outings (29W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Telstar's home form reads 13W 6D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Telstar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.96 points per game from 23 outings (13W 6D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Telstar are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.32 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 29W 9D 9L in their last 47 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Feyenoord away?
Telstar's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.96 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Telstar or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Telstar
0
Draws
2
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Feyenoord?
From 2 meetings on record, Telstar have won 0, Feyenoord have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Feyenoord 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 56%, Feyenoord 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Telstar and 61% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Feyenoord in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Telstar's games and 61% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Telstar's matches and 61% of Feyenoord's.
Do Telstar and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Telstar 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Telstar 1-2 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.15 xG and Feyenoord 2.96 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Feyenoord landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.87 / defence 1.39 against Feyenoord attack 1.48 / defence 0.76, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 12% | Draw 14% | Feyenoord 74%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, Feyenoord 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.