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Poisson rates Groningen at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs PEC Zwolle encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Groningen welcome PEC Zwolle to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 15:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Groningen — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Groningen at Euroborg this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Groningen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PEC Zwolle in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Groningen, 1 for PEC Zwolle and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 0–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Groningen trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

PEC Zwolle trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 52% versus PEC Zwolle 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 50% | PEC Zwolle 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 2.31 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.921 / defence 0.822 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.018 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.465. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Groningen games / 46 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Groningen 62% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 19%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | PEC Zwolle 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | PEC Zwolle 80% BTTS from recent games.

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