Heracles 0-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Heracles at 46%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Heracles vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Heracles and FC Volendam meet at Asito Stadium in Eredivisie (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

Heracles's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Heracles have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

FC Volendam (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Volendam are 0.60 PPG clear of Heracles over their recent games (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, FC Volendam edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Heracles 0–3 FC Volendam — a FC Volendam win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Heracles — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

FC Volendam — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 59% and FC Volendam 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 64% | FC Volendam 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Heracles surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while FC Volendam have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.46 xG and FC Volendam 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.719 / defence 1.255 | FC Volendam attack 0.583 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.740 / away 1.256. Heracles's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.46. FC Volendam's attack rating of 0.583 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Heracles's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Volendam's projected output up. Data: built from Heracles's last 64 games and FC Volendam's last 30.

Result probabilities: Heracles 46% | Draw 34% | FC Volendam 20%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.17 | Draw 2.97 | FC Volendam 4.95. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Heracles 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights