Heracles 0-3 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajax make the trip to Asito Stadium to face Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Heracles (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Heracles's home record at Asito Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Heracles are significantly better at Asito Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ajax's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ajax's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Ajax are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Heracles have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ajax in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Ajax hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Ajax winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ajax have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 60% versus Ajax 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 64% | Ajax 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.30 xG and Ajax 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.796 / defence 1.154 | Ajax attack 1.077 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.292. Heracles's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Heracles games / 63 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 28% | Draw 29% | Ajax 42%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Ajax 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajax if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | Ajax 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 28% | Draw 29% | Ajax 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Heracles 1.30 / Ajax 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.796 / def 1.154 | Ajax attack 1.077 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Ajax (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Ajax xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Ajax kick off?
Heracles vs Ajax kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Ajax?
Heracles 0 - 3 Ajax.
Where is Heracles vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs Ajax part of?
Heracles vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 28% chance of winning, Ajax a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Heracles and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Ajax?
Record (7 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 1 | Ajax 6W.
What form are Heracles and Ajax in?
Heracles (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Ajax (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.80x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.08x) against Heracles's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
28%
3.52
29%
3.39
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.90
1.61
Ajax xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
6%
17.55
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Heracles and 1.61 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heracles come into this having played 63 games, going 14W 15D 34L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 2.00 PPG from 63 outings (36W 18D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Heracles's home form reads 10W 10D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 1.74 points per game from 31 outings (14W 12D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 1.92 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Ajax in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 14W 15D 34L in their last 63 games (0.90 PPG), while Ajax have gone 36W 18D 9L in their last 63 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.29 PPG; Ajax away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Heracles or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Ajax in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ajax have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 4-0 on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
1
Draws
7
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, Ajax have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Heracles 0-3 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Heracles, 68% for Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Heracles) and 58% (Ajax). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Heracles's games and 68% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Heracles's matches and 58% of Ajax's.
Do Heracles and Ajax tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ajax in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Heracles 0-3 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.30 xG and Ajax 1.61 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ajax outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Ajax attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 28% | Draw 29% | Ajax 42%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, Ajax 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajax's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.