GO Ahead Eagles 0-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GO Ahead Eagles at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles host AZ Alkmaar at De Adelaarshorst in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 23 April 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
GO Ahead Eagles — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
GO Ahead Eagles at De Adelaarshorst this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (GO Ahead Eagles) versus 1.60 (AZ Alkmaar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AZ Alkmaar have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for GO Ahead Eagles.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
GO Ahead Eagles in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 56% versus AZ Alkmaar 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 61% | AZ Alkmaar 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 2.35 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.302 / defence 1.011 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.865 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.293. GO Ahead Eagles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 GO Ahead Eagles games / 64 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 63% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 15%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | AZ Alkmaar 6.67. The model has a clear lean to GO Ahead Eagles (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GO Ahead Eagles are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 70% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Apr 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 63% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 2.35 / AZ Alkmaar 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.302 / def 1.011 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.865 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.13
AZ Alkmaar xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 on Thursday 23 April 2026 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
GO Ahead Eagles 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 63% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (8 meetings): GO Ahead Eagles 0W | Draws 2 | AZ Alkmaar 6W.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GO Ahead Eagles's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against AZ Alkmaar's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.44
15%
6.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
3.48
1.13
AZ Alkmaar xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
6.68
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
10%
10.46
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
1%
69.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.13 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, GO Ahead Eagles have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 22W 21D 21L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 30W 15D 19L from 64 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: GO Ahead Eagles on 1.36 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 1.87 PPG from 31 outings (16W 10D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — GO Ahead Eagles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 13W 6D 12L from 31 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GO Ahead Eagles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.80 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 22W 21D 21L in their last 64 games (1.36 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 30W 15D 19L in their last 64 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
GO Ahead Eagles's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.87 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2023, when AZ Alkmaar won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GO Ahead Eagles
3
Draws
7
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 5-2 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 58%, AZ Alkmaar 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for GO Ahead Eagles and 64% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 55% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 64% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GO Ahead Eagles's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 31, as GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 2.35 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.13 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles fell 2.3 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.30 / defence 1.01 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 63% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 15%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 61%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.36 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.