FC Volendam 0-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 38%, yet in-form Heerenveen provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Volendam vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Heerenveen make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Heerenveen have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Heerenveen are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 61% and Heerenveen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 70% | Heerenveen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.56 xG and Heerenveen 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.832 / defence 1.027 | Heerenveen attack 1.046 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.279. Data: 31 FC Volendam games / 65 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 38% | Draw 31% | Heerenveen 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Heerenveen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heerenveen (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Heerenveen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 38% | Draw 31% | Heerenveen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Volendam 1.56 / Heerenveen 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.832 / def 1.027 | Heerenveen attack 1.046 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Heerenveen xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Heerenveen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Heerenveen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
FC Volendam 0 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is FC Volendam vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Heerenveen part of?
FC Volendam vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 38% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Volendam and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heerenveen?
Record (5 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 1 | Heerenveen 3W.
What form are FC Volendam and Heerenveen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Heerenveen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.83) and Heerenveen's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (1.05x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
38%
2.60
31%
3.19
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.93
1.37
Heerenveen xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.37 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 34W 11D 21L from 66 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 26L across 66 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.36 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 21W 5D 7L from 33 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 7W 4D 22L across 33 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.48 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Heerenveen in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 34W 11D 21L in their last 66 games (1.71 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 25W 15D 26L in their last 66 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Heerenveen away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.06 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heerenveen won 0-4 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
1
Draws
4
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heerenveen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Heerenveen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC Volendam 0-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 67%, Heerenveen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for FC Volendam and 73% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Heerenveen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Volendam's games and 54% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of FC Volendam's matches and 73% of Heerenveen's.
Do FC Volendam and Heerenveen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat FC Volendam 0-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.56 xG and Heerenveen 1.37 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Heerenveen attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 38% | Draw 31% | Heerenveen 30%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 70%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Heerenveen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.71 PPG, Heerenveen 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.