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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Utrecht (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Excelsior face Utrecht.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as Excelsior welcome Utrecht to Stadion Woudestein. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Excelsior's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Woudestein this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Utrecht — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Utrecht away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Utrecht — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Utrecht in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Utrecht have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Excelsior.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with Utrecht winning.

It is worth noting that Utrecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Excelsior trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Utrecht trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 58% and Utrecht 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 58% | Utrecht 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 0.95 xG and Utrecht 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.634 / defence 1.203 | Utrecht attack 1.152 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.271. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Excelsior games / 64 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Excelsior 17% | Draw 30% | Utrecht 53%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | Utrecht 1.89. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.

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