Groningen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Groningen face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
PSV Eindhoven travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen in Eredivisie (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Groningen stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, PSV Eindhoven have recorded 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PSV Eindhoven away from home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 away games — 3.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.80 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Groningen's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
PSV Eindhoven have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Groningen.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Groningen 2–4 PSV Eindhoven — a PSV Eindhoven win.
The H2H data backs the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 5.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 49% versus PSV Eindhoven 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Groningen 47% | PSV Eindhoven 84%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.04 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.867 / defence 0.879 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.431 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.417. PSV Eindhoven bring a tight defence (rating 0.732, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Groningen's projected output down. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack rating of 1.431, which lifts their away xG to 1.78. Data: built from Groningen's last 55 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 55.
Result probabilities: Groningen 22% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 55%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.54 | Draw 4.28 | PSV Eindhoven 1.83. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and PSV Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Groningen 40% (last 10 home games) | PSV Eindhoven 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 22 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 22% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Groningen 1.04 / PSV Eindhoven 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.867 / def 0.879 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.431 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.78
PSV Eindhoven xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven FAQs
What time does Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Groningen 1 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 22% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Groningen and PSV Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.87x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 55 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
22%
4.54
23%
4.28
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.83
1.78
PSV Eindhoven xG
4.54
22%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
4%
26.94
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Groningen and 1.78 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 19W 13D 23L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 43W 6D 6L from 55 games, 2.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 27 home games (12W 9D 6L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 22W 1D 4L from their last 27 away games — 2.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.04 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven in 67%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Groningen (Home) vs PSV Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 43W 6D 6L in their last 55 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.67 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Feb 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won PSV Eindhoven 6-0 Groningen.
Groningen's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 44%, PSV Eindhoven 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Groningen and 82% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and PSV Eindhoven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Groningen's games and 70% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Groningen's matches and 82% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Groningen and PSV Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Groningen's recent matches and 89% of PSV Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out Groningen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Groningen 1-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.04 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.78 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.43 / defence 0.73, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 22% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 55%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 47%, PSV Eindhoven 84%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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