NAC Breda 0-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 51%, yet in-form Excelsior provide a compelling counter-argument — this NAC Breda vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as NAC Breda welcome Excelsior to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Excelsior — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Excelsior in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 2, Excelsior 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 58% versus Excelsior 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 53% | Excelsior 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.71 xG and Excelsior 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.891 / defence 1.090 | Excelsior attack 0.741 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.420. Data: 55 NAC Breda games / 21 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 51% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 26%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Excelsior 3.85. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 51% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG NAC Breda 1.71 / Excelsior 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.891 / def 1.090 | Excelsior attack 0.741 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Excelsior xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Excelsior kick off?
NAC Breda vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
NAC Breda 0 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is NAC Breda vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Excelsior part of?
NAC Breda vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 51% chance of winning, Excelsior a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both NAC Breda and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Excelsior?
Record (5 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Excelsior in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Excelsior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Excelsior's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.19
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.86
1.15
Excelsior xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
5%
21.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.15 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 11W 16D 28L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior's form line: 26W 12D 17L from 55 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 9W 7D 10L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.56 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Excelsior in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 11W 16D 28L in their last 55 games (0.89 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 26W 12D 17L in their last 55 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.27 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.31 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Excelsior in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Excelsior runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Excelsior have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Excelsior have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when NAC Breda 0-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 65%, Excelsior at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 69% (Excelsior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of NAC Breda's games and 69% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 69% of Excelsior's.
Do NAC Breda and Excelsior tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat NAC Breda 0-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.71 xG and Excelsior 1.15 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Excelsior attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 51% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 26%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 53%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Excelsior's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.