Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Groningen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen meet at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Sparta Rotterdam have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Groningen managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The historical record gives Sparta Rotterdam a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 50% versus Groningen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 44% | Groningen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.06 xG and Groningen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.787 / defence 1.006 | Groningen attack 0.917 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.470. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Sparta Rotterdam games / 54 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 27% | Groningen 44%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Groningen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | Groningen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 27% | Groningen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.06 / Groningen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.787 / def 1.006 | Groningen attack 0.917 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Groningen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Groningen xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 0 Groningen.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 29% chance of winning, Groningen a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
Record (7 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 5W | Draws 1 | Groningen 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Groningen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.92x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
29%
3.41
27%
3.68
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.42
1.36
Groningen xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.36 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 19W 14D 21L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 22L across 54 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.30 for Groningen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 8W 8D 11L from 27 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 7W 4D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.26 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Groningen have gone 19W 13D 22L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Groningen away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.19 PPG; Groningen away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-5 on 28 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 6, Groningen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 52%, Groningen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 52% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 26% of games; Groningen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 56% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 52% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Groningen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Groningen 2-0 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.06 xG and Groningen 1.36 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Groningen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Groningen attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 27% | Groningen 44%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sparta Rotterdam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 44%, Groningen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.31 PPG, Groningen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.