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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face PSV Eindhoven.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees PSV Eindhoven travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.

PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PSV Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PSV Eindhoven are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, PSV Eindhoven have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for FC Volendam.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with PSV Eindhoven winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

FC Volendam in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

PSV Eindhoven in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and PSV Eindhoven 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 71% | PSV Eindhoven 84%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.02 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.853 / defence 0.967 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.421 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.452. PSV Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 FC Volendam games / 56 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Volendam 19% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 60%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | PSV Eindhoven 1.67. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.

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