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Poisson model favours NEC Nijmegen (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NEC Nijmegen face Heracles.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as NEC Nijmegen welcome Heracles to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Goffertstadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

NEC Nijmegen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for NEC Nijmegen, 2 for Heracles and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with NEC Nijmegen winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Heracles in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 60% and Heracles 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 69% | Heracles 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.72 xG and Heracles 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.254 / defence 0.973 | Heracles attack 0.879 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.427. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 NEC Nijmegen games / 55 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 69% | Draw 16% | Heracles 15%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.45 | Draw 6.25 | Heracles 6.67. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.72 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.

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