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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam encounter.

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Match Analysis

PEC Zwolle host FC Volendam at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for PEC Zwolle, 1 for FC Volendam and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with FC Volendam winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

FC Volendam in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 60% and FC Volendam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 53% | FC Volendam 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.25 xG and FC Volendam 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.131 / defence 0.871 | FC Volendam attack 0.493 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.425. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 PEC Zwolle games / 21 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 75% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 9%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | FC Volendam 11.11. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 40% | FC Volendam 40% BTTS from recent games.

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