PEC Zwolle 1-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host FC Volendam at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for PEC Zwolle, 1 for FC Volendam and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 60% and FC Volendam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 53% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.25 xG and FC Volendam 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.131 / defence 0.871 | FC Volendam attack 0.493 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.425. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 PEC Zwolle games / 21 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 75% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 9%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | FC Volendam 11.11. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 40% | FC Volendam 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 75% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 41% | xG PEC Zwolle 2.25 / FC Volendam 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.131 / def 0.871 | FC Volendam attack 0.493 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.61
FC Volendam xG
41%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam part of?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 75% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 1.13x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 3-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
75%
1.34
17%
5.98
9%
11.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.87
0.61
FC Volendam xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.98
17%
Draw
11.75
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
10%
9.53
Win to Nil
41%
2.47
1%
111.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.61 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 17W 16D 22L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 29W 10D 16L from 55 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Venue Form
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (13W 5D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — PEC Zwolle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 11W 6D 10L from 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.84 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 16D 22L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 29W 10D 16L in their last 55 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or FC Volendam away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.63 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when PEC Zwolle won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 48%, FC Volendam 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PEC Zwolle) and 67% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 59% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 67% of FC Volendam's.
Do PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.25 xG and FC Volendam 0.61 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against FC Volendam attack 0.49 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 75% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 9%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 53%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.