Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Groningen face AZ Alkmaar.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 4W 1D 5L at Euroborg — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

AZ Alkmaar have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Groningen's 2 victories.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Groningen winning.

It is worth noting that AZ Alkmaar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Groningen in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 58% and AZ Alkmaar 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | AZ Alkmaar 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.33 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.044 / defence 0.936 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.041 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Groningen games / 38 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Groningen 27% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 49%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | AZ Alkmaar 2.04. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 80% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.

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