PEC Zwolle vs Groningen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host Groningen at in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Groningen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Groningen are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Groningen and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2026, ended 0–3 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Groningen in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 63% and Groningen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 63% | Groningen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.04 xG and Groningen 2.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.617 / defence 1.256 | Groningen attack 1.255 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 2.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 PEC Zwolle games / 42 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 10% | Draw 17% | Groningen 73%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 10.00 | Draw 5.88 | Groningen 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.04 / 2.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 50% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 10% | Draw 17% | Groningen 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 62% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.04 / Groningen 2.81 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.617 / def 1.256 | Groningen attack 1.255 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: Groningen (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
2.81
Groningen xG
62%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Groningen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Groningen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 10% chance of winning, Groningen a 73% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Groningen?
Record (7 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 5 | Groningen 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Groningen in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.62x the league average against Groningen's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 2.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (8.4%), 1-3 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
10%
9.76
17%
6.00
73%
1.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.85
2.81
Groningen xG
9.76
10%
Home win
6.00
17%
Draw
1.37
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
6%
16.61
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
1%
162.05
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.81 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 11D 21L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 18W 8D 17L from 43 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Groningen are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 9W 3D 9L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.63 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Groningen in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Groningen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Groningen have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.33 PPG; Groningen away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Groningen runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2026, when Groningen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
5
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Groningen?
From 7 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Groningen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 48%, Groningen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (PEC Zwolle) and 48% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 62% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 48% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Groningen tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Groningen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.