Excelsior vs Ajax – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ajax at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Ajax meet at Stadion Woudestein in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Excelsior (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior's home record at Stadion Woudestein: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Woudestein this season.
Ajax have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Ajax have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajax away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Excelsior 1W, Ajax 2W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ajax — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 65% and Ajax 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 65% | Ajax 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.05 xG and Ajax 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.968 / defence 0.827 | Ajax attack 1.141 / defence 0.650. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Ajax's defence strength of 0.650 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Excelsior games / 37 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 22% | Draw 25% | Ajax 54%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Ajax 1.85. Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajax if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 70% | Ajax 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 22% | Draw 25% | Ajax 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Excelsior 1.05 / Ajax 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.968 / def 0.827 | Ajax attack 1.141 / def 0.650 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Ajax (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Ajax xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Ajax kick off?
Excelsior vs Ajax is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Stadion Woudestein.
Where is Excelsior vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs Ajax part of?
Excelsior vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 22% chance of winning, Ajax a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Excelsior and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Ajax?
Record (6 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 3 | Ajax 2W.
What form are Excelsior and Ajax in?
Excelsior (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Ajax (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.97x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.14x) against Excelsior's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
22%
4.59
25%
4.07
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.83
1.77
Ajax xG
4.59
22%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
4%
27.10
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.77 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior's recent record stands at 12W 8D 17L from 37 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 6L across 37 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajax by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 6W 3D 9L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajax's away record stands at 7W 9D 2L across 18 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 1.84 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Ajax in 62%.
Defensively: Ajax in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Ajax in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 12W 8D 17L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while Ajax have gone 16W 15D 6L in their last 37 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.17 PPG; Ajax away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Ajax in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 7-1 on 16 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
3
Draws
2
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Ajax?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, Ajax have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Excelsior 2-2 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 56%, Ajax 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Excelsior) and 61% (Ajax). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Excelsior's games and 67% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Excelsior's matches and 61% of Ajax's.
Do Excelsior and Ajax tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ajax in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.