Cambuur vs Utrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as Cambuur welcome Utrecht to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur at Kooi Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cambuur at 1.20 PPG versus Utrecht's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Utrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cambuur, 2 for Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Utrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Utrecht trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 69% and Utrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 64% | Utrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.96 xG and Utrecht 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.914 / defence 1.353 | Utrecht attack 0.906 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Cambuur games / 42 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 35% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 43%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Utrecht 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 2.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.14 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 77% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 35% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 77% | xG Cambuur 1.96 / Utrecht 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.914 / def 1.353 | Utrecht attack 0.906 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.18
Utrecht xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Utrecht kick off?
Cambuur vs Utrecht is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Utrecht part of?
Cambuur vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 35% chance of winning, Utrecht a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Cambuur and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Utrecht?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Utrecht in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.91x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
35%
2.89
22%
4.47
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.14
2.18
Utrecht xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.41
Clean Sheet
11%
8.87
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
4%
25.63
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.18 for Utrecht, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambuur come into this having played 45 games, going 24W 12D 9L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.51 PPG from 45 outings (19W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.87 PPG, Utrecht on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cambuur's home form reads 13W 6D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.64 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Utrecht in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 24W 12D 9L in their last 45 games (1.87 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Utrecht away?
Cambuur's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.96 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Utrecht have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cambuur 0-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 70%, Utrecht at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Cambuur and 65% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cambuur's games and 70% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Cambuur's matches and 65% of Utrecht's.
Do Cambuur and Utrecht tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.