Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to De Kuip to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord at De Kuip this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Feyenoord's favour (2.60 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Feyenoord register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, NEC Nijmegen in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Feyenoord, who have won 4 of the last 10 meetings against NEC Nijmegen — a 5D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 3–1 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 60% and NEC Nijmegen 84% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 63% | NEC Nijmegen 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.13 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.269 / defence 0.747 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.931 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Feyenoord games / 42 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 56% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 20%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | NEC Nijmegen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 70% | NEC Nijmegen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 56% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Feyenoord 2.13 / NEC Nijmegen 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.269 / def 0.747 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.931 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.24
NEC Nijmegen xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at De Kuip.
Where is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 56% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (10 meetings): Feyenoord 4W | Draws 5 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.27x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.93x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.26
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.37
1.24
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
12%
8.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
2%
41.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.24 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord come into this having played 43 games, going 26W 10D 7L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.60 PPG from 43 outings (18W 15D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Feyenoord's home form reads 13W 5D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 2.14 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; NEC Nijmegen in 84%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 26W 10D 7L in their last 43 games (2.05 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 15D 10L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.10 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-4 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
5
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Feyenoord, 86% for NEC Nijmegen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Feyenoord and 67% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Feyenoord's games and 86% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Feyenoord's matches and 67% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.