Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to De Kuip to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord at De Kuip this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Feyenoord, 1.60 for NEC Nijmegen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Feyenoord register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, NEC Nijmegen in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Feyenoord, who have won 4 of the last 10 meetings against NEC Nijmegen — a 5D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 65% and NEC Nijmegen 84% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 62% | NEC Nijmegen 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.55 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.056 / defence 1.010 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.247 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 2.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Feyenoord games / 37 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 24% | Draw 20% | NEC Nijmegen 55%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 4.17 | Draw 5.00 | NEC Nijmegen 1.82. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 2.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 90% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 24% | Draw 20% | NEC Nijmegen 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Feyenoord 1.55 / NEC Nijmegen 2.37 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.056 / def 1.010 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.247 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
2.37
NEC Nijmegen xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at De Kuip.
Where is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 24% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 55% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (10 meetings): Feyenoord 4W | Draws 5 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.06x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.25x) against Feyenoord's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 2.37.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
24%
4.11
20%
4.94
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.92
2.37
NEC Nijmegen xG
4.11
24%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
9%
10.68
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
2%
43.86
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Feyenoord and 2.37 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord come into this having played 37 games, going 20W 10D 7L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.76 PPG from 37 outings (18W 11D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Feyenoord against 1.76 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Feyenoord's home form reads 10W 5D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 2.30 scored and 1.54 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; NEC Nijmegen in 84%.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 20W 10D 7L in their last 37 games (1.89 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 11D 8L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Feyenoord's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 1.94 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-4 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
5
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Feyenoord, 89% for NEC Nijmegen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Feyenoord and 67% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Feyenoord's games and 89% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 67% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.