FC Volendam 0-4 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Volendam welcome AZ Alkmaar to Kras Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Volendam stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC Volendam have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
AZ Alkmaar — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
AZ Alkmaar's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for FC Volendam, 2 for AZ Alkmaar and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended FC Volendam 0–3 AZ Alkmaar — a AZ Alkmaar win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and AZ Alkmaar 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 68% | AZ Alkmaar 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Volendam surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while AZ Alkmaar have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 0.85 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.698 / defence 1.697 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.943 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.390. FC Volendam's attack rating of 0.698 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. AZ Alkmaar bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Volendam's projected output down. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.697 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AZ Alkmaar's projected output up. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 59 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 59.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 12% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 67%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 8.44 | Draw 4.79 | AZ Alkmaar 1.49. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 50% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 12% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG FC Volendam 0.85 / AZ Alkmaar 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.698 / def 1.697 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.943 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
2.22
AZ Alkmaar xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar FAQs
What time does FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
FC Volendam 0 - 4 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 12% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.70) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Volendam's last 59 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
12%
8.44
21%
4.79
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.08
2.22
AZ Alkmaar xG
8.44
12%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
11%
9.23
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
1%
77.93
29%
3.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for FC Volendam and 2.22 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 13W 11D 35L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 33W 14D 12L from 59 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.21 PPG from their last 29 home games (11W 2D 16L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 16W 7D 6L from their last 29 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.98 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
FC Volendam (Home) vs AZ Alkmaar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Volendam
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar Form FAQs
What form are FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 13W 11D 35L in their last 59 games (0.85 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 33W 14D 12L in their last 59 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.21 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.90 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2024, when AZ Alkmaar won FC Volendam 0-4 AZ Alkmaar.
FC Volendam's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
2
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Volendam have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: AZ Alkmaar 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 62%, AZ Alkmaar 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for FC Volendam and 59% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Volendam's games and 59% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC Volendam's matches and 59% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 79% of AZ Alkmaar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat FC Volendam 0-4 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 0.85 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.22 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 0.9 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 2.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.70 / defence 1.70 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.94 / defence 0.77, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 12% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 67%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, AZ Alkmaar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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