Excelsior 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Excelsior welcome Waalwijk to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Excelsior — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior have posted 2W 4D 4L at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Excelsior) versus 0.80 (Waalwijk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Excelsior, 1 for Waalwijk and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 56% versus Waalwijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 66% | Waalwijk 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.46 xG and Waalwijk 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.892 / defence 1.185 | Waalwijk attack 0.629 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.390. Data: 59 Excelsior games / 59 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 46% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Waalwijk 3.85. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 70% | Waalwijk 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 46% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Excelsior 1.46 / Waalwijk 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.892 / def 1.185 | Waalwijk attack 0.629 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Waalwijk xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Waalwijk kick off?
Excelsior vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Excelsior 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Excelsior vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Waalwijk part of?
Excelsior vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 46% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Excelsior and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Waalwijk?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Waalwijk in?
Excelsior (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.89) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.51
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.50
1.04
Waalwijk xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.04 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior's recent record stands at 13W 14D 32L from 59 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 31L across 59 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 0.90 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 10W 8D 11L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 4W 6D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.24 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 14D 32L in their last 59 games (0.90 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 11D 31L in their last 59 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Waalwijk away?
Excelsior's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.31 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and Waalwijk runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Excelsior
3
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Waalwijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 0, Waalwijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Excelsior 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 59%, Waalwijk 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Excelsior) and 55% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 28% of games; Waalwijk in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Excelsior's recent matches and 45% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Excelsior's matches and 55% of Waalwijk's.
Do Excelsior and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior and Waalwijk finished level at 1-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.46 xG and Waalwijk 1.04 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Waalwijk attack 0.63 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 46% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 26%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 66%, Waalwijk 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 0.90 PPG, Waalwijk 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.