Vitesse 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 38%, yet in-form Almere City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vitesse vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Vitesse welcome Almere City FC to GelreDome. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Vitesse have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at GelreDome, Vitesse have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Almere City FC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Almere City FC's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Vitesse's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vitesse, 1 for Almere City FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 0–5 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitesse trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Almere City FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 49% versus Almere City FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 54% | Almere City FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.19 xG and Almere City FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.706 / defence 1.018 | Almere City FC attack 0.735 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.390. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Vitesse games / 25 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 38% | Draw 32% | Almere City FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Almere City FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 50% | Almere City FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 38% | Draw 32% | Almere City FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Vitesse 1.19 / Almere City FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.706 / def 1.018 | Almere City FC attack 0.735 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Almere City FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Almere City FC kick off?
Vitesse vs Almere City FC kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Vitesse 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Vitesse vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Almere City FC part of?
Vitesse vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 38% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vitesse and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Vitesse and Almere City FC in?
Vitesse (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.13
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.23
1.04
Almere City FC xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.04 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitesse's recent record stands at 14W 14D 31L from 59 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 17L across 59 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 6W 10D 13L from 29 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 14W 7D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 14W 14D 31L in their last 59 games (0.95 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 26W 16D 17L in their last 59 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.97 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Almere City FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vitesse
2
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 0, Almere City FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Vitesse 1-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 48%, Almere City FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Vitesse) and 38% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Vitesse keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Almere City FC in 41%; Vitesse have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Vitesse's recent matches and 45% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Vitesse's recent games and 38% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and Almere City FC finished level at 1-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.19 xG and Almere City FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.71 / defence 1.02 against Almere City FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 38% | Draw 32% | Almere City FC 30%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 54%, Almere City FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.