PEC Zwolle 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host FC Volendam at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for PEC Zwolle, 0 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 5–0 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 57% and FC Volendam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 62% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.35 xG and FC Volendam 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.690 / defence 1.415 | FC Volendam attack 0.931 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.431. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 PEC Zwolle games / 58 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 49%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | FC Volendam 2.04. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PEC Zwolle (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 50% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.35 / FC Volendam 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.690 / def 1.415 | FC Volendam attack 0.931 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.89
FC Volendam xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam part of?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 27% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.69x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
27%
3.71
24%
4.23
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.24
1.89
FC Volendam xG
3.71
27%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
4%
24.41
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.89 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 30W 10D 18L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 13W 10D 35L from 58 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PEC Zwolle are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Venue Form
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (16W 4D 9L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 8D 19L from 29 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.16 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 30W 10D 18L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 13W 10D 35L in their last 58 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or FC Volendam away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.79 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.48 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when PEC Zwolle won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 52%, FC Volendam 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for PEC Zwolle and 69% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FC Volendam in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of PEC Zwolle's games and 66% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 69% of FC Volendam's.
Do PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.35 xG and FC Volendam 1.89 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Volendam landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.69 / defence 1.42 against FC Volendam attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 49%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.