Fortuna Sittard 3-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to face Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 5W 2D 3L at Fortuna Sittard Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.10 for PEC Zwolle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Sittard lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 51% versus PEC Zwolle 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 63% | PEC Zwolle 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.84 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.138 / defence 1.172 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.997 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.396. Data: 59 Fortuna Sittard games / 25 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 42% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 34%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | PEC Zwolle 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 60% | PEC Zwolle 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 42% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.84 / PEC Zwolle 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.138 / def 1.172 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.997 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Fortuna Sittard 3 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 42% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 1.14x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.00x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.17
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.47
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.63 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 13D 28L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.71 PPG from 59 outings (30W 11D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fortuna Sittard's home form reads 11W 7D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.66 points per game from 29 outings (14W 6D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.98 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 18W 13D 28L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 30W 11D 18L in their last 59 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.38 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won 1-4 on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
5
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, PEC Zwolle have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 3-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 48%, PEC Zwolle 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Fortuna Sittard and 69% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 62% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 69% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat PEC Zwolle 3-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.84 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 1.14 / defence 1.17 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 42% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 34%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 63%, PEC Zwolle 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.