AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AZ Alkmaar welcome Excelsior to AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 11:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AZ Alkmaar have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AZ Alkmaar's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Excelsior — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Excelsior have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, AZ Alkmaar have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, Excelsior 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Excelsior — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Excelsior trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 59% versus Excelsior 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 60% | Excelsior 66%). Note also that Excelsior surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while AZ Alkmaar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.76 xG and Excelsior 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.106 / defence 0.800 | Excelsior attack 1.055 / defence 1.588. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.441. Excelsior's defence rating of 1.588 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AZ Alkmaar's projected output up. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 58 games and Excelsior's last 58.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 69% | Draw 17% | Excelsior 14%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.44 | Draw 6.00 | Excelsior 7.14. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (69%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.76 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.97 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Excelsior's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 40% (last 10 home games) | Excelsior 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 25 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 69% | Draw 17% | Excelsior 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.76 / Excelsior 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.106 / def 0.800 | Excelsior attack 1.055 / def 1.588 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Excelsior xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
AZ Alkmaar 4 - 0 Excelsior.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 69% chance of winning, Excelsior a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Excelsior's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.76. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 58 games and Excelsior's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
69%
1.44
17%
6.00
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.97
1.22
Excelsior xG
1.44
69%
Home win
6.00
17%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
6%
15.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
1%
112.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.22 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 58 games, going 32W 14D 12L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 0.91 PPG from 58 outings (13W 14D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.99 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 16W 7D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 0.52 points per game from their last 29 away games (3W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.21 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs Excelsior (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 14D 12L in their last 58 games (1.90 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 13W 14D 31L in their last 58 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Excelsior away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.90 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.52 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Excelsior in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Feb 2023, when AZ Alkmaar won AZ Alkmaar 5-0 Excelsior.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, Excelsior have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 59%, Excelsior 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for AZ Alkmaar and 69% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Excelsior in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 55% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 69% of Excelsior's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 72% of Excelsior's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Excelsior 4-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.76 xG and Excelsior 1.22 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.11 / defence 0.80 against Excelsior attack 1.05 / defence 1.59, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 69% | Draw 17% | Excelsior 14%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 60%, Excelsior 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Excelsior's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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