Cambuur 1-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and Emmen meet at Cambuur Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cambuur Stadion, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Emmen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Cambuur, 0.90 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cambuur, 0 for Emmen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cambuur — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Emmen — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 57% versus Emmen 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 65% | Emmen 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.62 xG and Emmen 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.803 / defence 1.370 | Emmen attack 0.677 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.313. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Cambuur games / 26 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 45% | Draw 28% | Emmen 27%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Emmen 3.70. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 30% | Emmen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 45% | Draw 28% | Emmen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Cambuur 1.62 / Emmen 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.803 / def 1.370 | Emmen attack 0.677 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Emmen xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Emmen kick off?
Cambuur vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Emmen?
Cambuur 1 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Cambuur vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Emmen part of?
Cambuur vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 45% chance of winning, Emmen a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cambuur and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 1 | Emmen 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Emmen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.80x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.68x) against Cambuur's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.56
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.84
1.22
Emmen xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
5%
18.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.22 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 15W 10D 35L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 29W 13D 18L from 60 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.83 PPG from 29 outings (7W 3D 19L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 11W 5D 13L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.40 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Emmen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 35L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Emmen have gone 29W 13D 18L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.83 PPG; Emmen away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Emmen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cambuur
2
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Emmen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 24 March 2026, when Emmen 2-4 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 62%, Emmen 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Cambuur) and 41% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 31%; Cambuur have failed to score in 31% of games; Emmen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Cambuur's recent matches and 45% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Cambuur's matches and 41% of Emmen's.
Do Cambuur and Emmen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Emmen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.62 xG and Emmen 1.22 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.80 / defence 1.37 against Emmen attack 0.68 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 45% | Draw 28% | Emmen 27%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 65%, Emmen 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.