Emmen 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Oude Meerdijk plays host to Emmen versus Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk.
Sparta Rotterdam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Rotterdam are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Emmen lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 44% versus Sparta Rotterdam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 46% | Sparta Rotterdam 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.01 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.744 / defence 0.967 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.055 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.291. Emmen's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Emmen games / 59 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 27% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 42%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | Sparta Rotterdam 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 27% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Emmen 1.01 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.744 / def 0.967 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.055 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sparta Rotterdam xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Emmen 0 - 2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 27% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Emmen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Emmen's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (1.05x) against Emmen's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
27%
3.67
30%
3.29
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.33
1.32
Sparta Rotterdam xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
7%
13.70
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Emmen and 1.32 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 59 games, going 29W 13D 17L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.32 PPG from 59 outings (20W 18D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Emmen against 1.32 for Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 17W 8D 4L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.17 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 29W 13D 17L in their last 59 games (1.69 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Emmen's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.03 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Emmen or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Emmen
0
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 2 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Emmen 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 41%, Sparta Rotterdam 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Emmen) and 55% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 34%; Sparta Rotterdam in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Emmen's recent matches and 38% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Emmen's recent games and 55% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Emmen 0-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.01 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 27% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 42%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 46%, Sparta Rotterdam 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.69 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.