Excelsior 0-0 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Twente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Excelsior welcome Twente to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Twente have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Twente have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Twente's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Excelsior's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Excelsior, 1 for Twente and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Twente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Twente in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 55% versus Twente 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 63% | Twente 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.19 xG and Twente 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.875 / defence 1.304 | Twente attack 0.918 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.327. Data: 26 Excelsior games / 60 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 27% | Draw 28% | Twente 45%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Twente 2.22. Twente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Twente are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Twente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 40% | Twente 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 27% | Draw 28% | Twente 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Excelsior 1.19 / Twente 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.875 / def 1.304 | Twente attack 0.918 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Twente (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Twente xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Twente kick off?
Excelsior vs Twente kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Twente?
Excelsior 0 - 0 Twente.
Where is Excelsior vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Twente part of?
Excelsior vs Twente is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 27% chance of winning, Twente a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Excelsior and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Twente?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | Twente 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Twente in?
Excelsior (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Twente (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Twente's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Twente's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.57
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.78
1.59
Twente xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
6%
18.07
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.59 for Twente, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 13D 24L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Twente sit at 1.92 PPG from 60 outings (33W 16D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Twente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Excelsior's home form reads 13W 7D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Twente have taken 1.57 points per game from 30 outings (13W 8D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.65 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Twente in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Twente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Twente in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Twente have gone 33W 16D 11L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Twente away?
Twente's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.53 PPG; Twente away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Twente in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Twente won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Twente specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
3
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Twente?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, Twente have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Twente 0-0 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 60%, Twente 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Excelsior) and 43% (Twente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Twente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Excelsior's games and 57% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Excelsior's matches and 43% of Twente's.
Do Excelsior and Twente tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Twente in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Excelsior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as Excelsior and Twente drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.19 xG and Twente 1.59 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Twente landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.88 / defence 1.30 against Twente attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 27% | Draw 28% | Twente 45%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 63%, Twente 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Twente's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Twente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.