Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Feyenoord travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's home record at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sparta Rotterdam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Feyenoord in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 2 for Feyenoord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 45% versus Feyenoord 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 48% | Feyenoord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.30 xG and Feyenoord 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.945 / defence 0.929 | Feyenoord attack 1.472 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.313. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.472 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Sparta Rotterdam games / 60 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 26% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 47%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Feyenoord 2.13. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | Feyenoord 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 26% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.30 / Feyenoord 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.945 / def 0.929 | Feyenoord attack 1.472 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Feyenoord xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 3 Feyenoord.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 26% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
Record (2 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 2W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
26%
3.85
27%
3.76
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.09
1.80
Feyenoord xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
4%
23.21
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.80 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 21W 18D 21L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 40W 12D 8L from 60 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (12W 9D 9L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 20W 5D 5L from 30 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.25 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.50 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 53%, Feyenoord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 67% (Feyenoord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 33%; Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 67% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.30 xG and Feyenoord 1.80 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Feyenoord attack 1.47 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 26% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 47%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 48%, Feyenoord 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.