Emmen 0-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees NEC Nijmegen travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Emmen at 1.20 PPG versus NEC Nijmegen's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Emmen, 1 for NEC Nijmegen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2023, ended 1–3 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 44% versus NEC Nijmegen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 46% | NEC Nijmegen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 0.81 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.701 / defence 1.049 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.926 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.286. Emmen's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NEC Nijmegen's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Emmen games / 61 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 22% | Draw 33% | NEC Nijmegen 45%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | NEC Nijmegen 2.22. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | NEC Nijmegen 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 22% | Draw 33% | NEC Nijmegen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Emmen 0.81 / NEC Nijmegen 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.701 / def 1.049 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.926 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
NEC Nijmegen xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Emmen 0 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 22% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Emmen and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 0 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Emmen and NEC Nijmegen in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.70) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
22%
4.49
33%
3.01
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.06
1.25
NEC Nijmegen xG
4.49
22%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
6%
15.69
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.9 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Emmen and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Emmen and 1.25 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 61 games, going 30W 13D 18L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.18 PPG from 61 outings (17W 21D 23L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 17W 8D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.23 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 30W 13D 18L in their last 61 games (1.69 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 17W 21D 23L in their last 61 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Emmen's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.97 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Emmen or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and NEC Nijmegen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Emmen
1
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NEC Nijmegen?
From 2 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Emmen 0-0 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 40%, NEC Nijmegen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Emmen) and 43% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Emmen's recent matches and 47% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Emmen's recent games and 43% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Emmen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 28, as Emmen and NEC Nijmegen drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 0.81 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.25 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Emmen fell 0.8 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.70 / defence 1.05 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.93 / defence 0.75, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 22% | Draw 33% | NEC Nijmegen 45%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 46%, NEC Nijmegen 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.