Excelsior 4-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 19 March 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Excelsior, 0.80 for Cambuur — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Excelsior 1W, Cambuur 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Excelsior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 54% versus Cambuur 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 63% | Cambuur 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.09 xG and Cambuur 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.688 / defence 1.343 | Cambuur attack 0.824 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.323. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Excelsior games / 59 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 27% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Cambuur 2.22. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Excelsior 40% | Cambuur 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 27% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Excelsior 1.09 / Cambuur 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.688 / def 1.343 | Cambuur attack 0.824 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Cambuur xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Cambuur kick off?
Excelsior vs Cambuur kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Excelsior 4 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Excelsior vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Cambuur part of?
Excelsior vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 27% chance of winning, Cambuur a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Excelsior and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Cambuur in?
Excelsior (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.69) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.82x) against Excelsior's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
27%
3.73
29%
3.50
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.55
1.46
Cambuur xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.46 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Excelsior come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 13D 24L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.93 PPG from 59 outings (15W 10D 34L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Excelsior's home form reads 12W 7D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (8W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.22 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 22W 13D 24L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 34L in their last 59 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Cambuur away?
Excelsior's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.48 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 0-4 on 7 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Excelsior
0
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Cambuur?
From 5 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Cambuur have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Cambuur 0-4 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Cambuur?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 59%, Cambuur 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Excelsior and 59% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Excelsior's recent matches and 48% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Excelsior's matches and 59% of Cambuur's.
Do Excelsior and Cambuur tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Cambuur 4-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.09 xG and Cambuur 1.46 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.69 / defence 1.34 against Cambuur attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 27% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 63%, Cambuur 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.