Almere City FC 1-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and Utrecht meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Utrecht (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.90 for Utrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Utrecht in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Almere City FC, 0 for Utrecht and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 48% versus Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 47% | Utrecht 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 0.76 xG and Utrecht 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.676 / defence 0.993 | Utrecht attack 0.719 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.442. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Utrecht's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 24 Almere City FC games / 58 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 34% | Utrecht 41%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Utrecht 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Almere City FC's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 20% | Utrecht 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 34% | Utrecht 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Almere City FC 0.76 / Utrecht 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.676 / def 0.993 | Utrecht attack 0.719 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Utrecht xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Utrecht kick off?
Almere City FC vs Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Utrecht?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is Almere City FC vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Utrecht part of?
Almere City FC vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 26% chance of winning, Utrecht a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Almere City FC and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | Utrecht 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Utrecht in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Utrecht (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Utrecht's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.72x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 24/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
26%
3.88
34%
2.98
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
1.79
1.03
Utrecht xG
3.88
26%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 17.2 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.03 for Utrecht, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 28W 15D 17L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 24W 17D 19L from 60 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.48 for Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (13W 8D 9L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 12W 7D 11L from 30 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.43 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 28W 15D 17L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 24W 17D 19L in their last 60 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Utrecht away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Utrecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
1
Draws
1
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Utrecht have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Utrecht 0-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Utrecht?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 53%, Utrecht 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Almere City FC) and 57% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Utrecht in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 47% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Almere City FC's matches and 57% of Utrecht's.
Do Almere City FC and Utrecht tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Almere City FC and Utrecht drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 0.76 xG and Utrecht 1.03 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.68 / defence 0.99 against Utrecht attack 0.72 / defence 0.72, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 26% | Draw 34% | Utrecht 41%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 47%, Utrecht 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Utrecht's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.65 PPG, Utrecht 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.