Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sparta Rotterdam face AZ Alkmaar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
AZ Alkmaar travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
AZ Alkmaar — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AZ Alkmaar's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sparta Rotterdam 1.10 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, AZ Alkmaar 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 AZ Alkmaar — a AZ Alkmaar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 49% versus AZ Alkmaar 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 56% | AZ Alkmaar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.17 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.966 / defence 1.139 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.954 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.469. AZ Alkmaar bring a tight defence (rating 0.799, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sparta Rotterdam's projected output down. Data: built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 57 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 57.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 28% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 47%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.62 | Draw 3.89 | AZ Alkmaar 2.14. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Rotterdam 50% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 28% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.17 / AZ Alkmaar 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.966 / def 1.139 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.954 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.59
AZ Alkmaar xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar FAQs
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 28% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.97) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 57 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
28%
3.62
26%
3.89
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.77
1.59
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
17.86
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.59 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 25W 13D 19L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 32W 13D 12L from 57 games, 1.91 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.54 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 16W 6D 6L from their last 28 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.96 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam (Home) vs AZ Alkmaar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 25W 13D 19L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 13D 12L in their last 57 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.61 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
6
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 54%, AZ Alkmaar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 61% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 57% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 61% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 79% of AZ Alkmaar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 24, as Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.17 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.59 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 28% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 47%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 56%, AZ Alkmaar 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.54 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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