Willem II 1-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Willem II at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Emmen at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.40 (Emmen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Willem II have won 1, Emmen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Emmen trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus Emmen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 53% | Emmen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.31 xG and Emmen 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.713 / defence 1.022 | Emmen attack 0.863 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.470. Willem II's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Willem II games / 53 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 26% | Emmen 37%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Emmen 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | Emmen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 26% | Emmen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Willem II 1.31 / Emmen 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.713 / def 1.022 | Emmen attack 0.863 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Emmen xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Emmen kick off?
Willem II vs Emmen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 15 November 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Emmen?
Willem II 1 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Willem II vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Emmen part of?
Willem II vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 37% chance of winning, Emmen a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Willem II and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Emmen?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Willem II and Emmen in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Emmen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.71) and Emmen's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.79
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.60
1.30
Emmen xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Willem II and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Willem II and 1.30 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 13W 13D 27L from 53 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 23W 7D 23L across 53 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 7W 5D 14L from 26 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 12W 1D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.55 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Emmen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 13W 13D 27L in their last 53 games (0.98 PPG), while Emmen have gone 23W 7D 23L in their last 53 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.00 PPG; Emmen away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Emmen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Willem II
1
Draws
1
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Emmen?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 2, Emmen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Emmen 0-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Emmen?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 62%, Emmen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Willem II) and 62% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Willem II's recent matches and 42% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Willem II's matches and 62% of Emmen's.
Do Willem II and Emmen tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Emmen in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Willem II and Emmen drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.31 xG and Emmen 1.30 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.71 / defence 1.02 against Emmen attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 37% | Draw 26% | Emmen 37%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 53%, Emmen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.