🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Jong Utrecht have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Emmen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Emmen's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Jong Utrecht, 1.40 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Emmen, who have claimed 6 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.

It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 54% versus Emmen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 54% | Emmen 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.80 xG and Emmen 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.942 / defence 0.930 | Emmen attack 0.798 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.429. Data: 52 Jong Utrecht games / 52 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 55% | Draw 23% | Emmen 22%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Jong Utrecht (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 60% | Emmen 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights