Almere City FC 3-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host VVV Venlo at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.10 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour VVV Venlo, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Almere City FC.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that VVV Venlo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 44% versus VVV Venlo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 54% | VVV Venlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.90 xG and VVV Venlo 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.145 / defence 1.002 | VVV Venlo attack 0.991 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.482. Data: 16 Almere City FC games / 54 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 48% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 30%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | VVV Venlo 3.33. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 48% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Almere City FC 1.90 / VVV Venlo 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.145 / def 1.002 | VVV Venlo attack 0.991 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
VVV Venlo xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 24 November 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Almere City FC 3 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo part of?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 48% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Almere City FC and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 2 | VVV Venlo 4W.
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
48%
2.09
22%
4.50
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.37
1.47
VVV Venlo xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
4%
22.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.47 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 9W 12D 29L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 18W 6D 26L from 50 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VVV Venlo are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almere City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 0.92 PPG from 24 outings (5W 7D 12L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 9W 2D 13L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.28 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 9W 12D 29L in their last 50 games (0.78 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 18W 6D 26L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or VVV Venlo away?
VVV Venlo's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.92 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2022, when VVV Venlo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, VVV Venlo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Almere City FC and 71% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 29% of games; VVV Venlo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 50% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Almere City FC's matches and 71% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Almere City FC and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat VVV Venlo 3-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.90 xG and VVV Venlo 1.47 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.00 against VVV Venlo attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 48% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 30%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 54%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VVV Venlo arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.