🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Roda (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face Dordrecht.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Roda host Dordrecht at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 25 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Roda — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On current form, Roda have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Roda, 3 for Dordrecht and 0 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Dordrecht winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Roda trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Dordrecht trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 57% versus Dordrecht 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Dordrecht 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.53 xG and Dordrecht 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.026 / defence 0.867 | Dordrecht attack 0.858 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.468. Data: 54 Roda games / 54 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 47% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 27%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 3.70. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | Dordrecht 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights