🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Helmond Sport at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Jong Ajax encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as Helmond Sport welcome Jong Ajax to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond Sport have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

On current form, Helmond Sport have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Helmond Sport have won 3, Jong Ajax 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Jong Ajax winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Helmond Sport trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Jong Ajax trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 65% versus Jong Ajax 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 63% | Jong Ajax 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 2.18 xG and Jong Ajax 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.031 / defence 1.058 | Jong Ajax attack 0.882 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.482. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Helmond Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Helmond Sport games / 54 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 56% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 24%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Jong Ajax 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Helmond Sport (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 80% | Jong Ajax 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights