🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Willem II at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs FC OSS encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Willem II and FC OSS meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC OSS (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, FC OSS have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC OSS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across 4 previous meetings, Willem II are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2024, ended 5–0 with Willem II winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Willem II and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus FC OSS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 54% | FC OSS 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.39 xG and FC OSS 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.751 / defence 1.031 | FC OSS attack 0.882 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.429. Willem II's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Willem II games / 52 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Willem II 39% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 35%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | FC OSS 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights