Willem II 1-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Willem II at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Den Bosch encounter.

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Analysis

Den Bosch make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eerste Divisie (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form

Willem II (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Willem II have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Den Bosch's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Willem II. A 0.70 PPG lead over Den Bosch (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Willem II's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Den Bosch in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Willem II, 2 for Den Bosch and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2025, ended Willem II 1–2 Den Bosch — a Den Bosch win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 60% versus Den Bosch 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Den Bosch 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.75 xG and Den Bosch 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.892 / defence 0.770 | Den Bosch attack 0.910 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.472. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Willem II's projected output up. Willem II have a tight defence (rating 0.770), which is pulling Den Bosch's projected output down. Data: built from Willem II's last 29 games and Den Bosch's last 67.

Result probabilities: Willem II 54% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 22%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.86 | Draw 4.04 | Den Bosch 4.64. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 60% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 80% (last 10 away games).

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