Willem II 0-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Willem II (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Willem II face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and De Graafschap meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 17:45 UK time.
Current Form
Willem II's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Willem II's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Willem II's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Willem II, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against De Graafschap — De Graafschap have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2025, ended Willem II 1–1 De Graafschap — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Willem II and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 60% and De Graafschap 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 53% | De Graafschap 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.37 xG and De Graafschap 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.870 / defence 0.782 | De Graafschap attack 1.108 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.513. Willem II have a tight defence (rating 0.782), which is pulling De Graafschap's projected output down. Data: built from Willem II's last 32 games and De Graafschap's last 70.
Result probabilities: Willem II 38% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 36%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.60 | Draw 3.86 | De Graafschap 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 60% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 33 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 March 2026 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 38% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Willem II 1.37 / De Graafschap 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.870 / def 0.782 | De Graafschap attack 1.108 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Willem II (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.31
De Graafschap xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does Willem II vs De Graafschap kick off?
Willem II vs De Graafschap kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 28 March 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Willem II 0 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Willem II vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs De Graafschap part of?
Willem II vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 33) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 38% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Willem II and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Willem II vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.87x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.11x) against Willem II's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 32 games and De Graafschap's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.86
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.68
1.31
De Graafschap xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Willem II and 1.31 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 70 games, going 22W 17D 31L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.64 PPG from 70 outings (33W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 11W 7D 16L across their last 34 home games, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 34 away games (12W 10D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.81 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 66%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
Willem II (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 33W 16D 21L in their last 70 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.18 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 28 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won De Graafschap 0-3 Willem II on 16 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Willem II
1
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and De Graafschap?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 4, De Graafschap have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Willem II and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2026: Willem II 0-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and De Graafschap?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 59%, De Graafschap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Willem II) and 62% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Willem II's games and 68% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Willem II and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Willem II's matches and 62% of De Graafschap's.
Do Willem II and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Willem II's recent matches and 79% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Willem II 0-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.37 xG and De Graafschap 1.31 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.87 / defence 0.78 against De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 38% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 36%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 53%, De Graafschap 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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